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Roasters need to plan their coffee orders from Ethiopia and Central America ahead of schedule this year. The coffee shortage on the news isn’t just an exaggeration.

Production is good in Ethiopia, but some farms have lost 50% of their crop in Central America. In Brazil, producers report plots that used to yield 50 bags are now expected to yield just 5. Yes, 5. There’s less coffee, period.

The key message from producers is buy early. Last year, some roasters waited for prices to drop and the opposite happened. This time, established roasters aren’t waiting. They’re less concerned about the impact of the price on their budget and realise they need to move fast to have any coffee at all.

Ethiopia and Central America: the full picture

In Ethiopia, production and quality are good, but government-fixed minimum prices tied to the futures market are driving prices up. It’s out of anyone’s hands—it’s the law—but the price increase isn’t as steep as in Central America. Our team is currently in Ethiopia aligning with producers.

In Central America, the harvest is concentrated, labour is scarce, and it’s raining at peak harvest. Ripe cherries are falling faster than workers can pick them. Many producers warned us about selling out back in December. In Honduras, for example, 80–84 points coffees are expected to sell out in the six weeks. 

The only thing worse than breaking bad news is pretending everything’s fine when it’s not. The coffee value chain is a complex one, but there’s always a solution. We’re here to strengthen roaster-producer relationships, especially in times like this. 

The Algrano team